Is Al Jefferson Worth the Max?
Now that the big names (Smush Parker, Ronnie Price) have been claimed, it's time for teams to lock up their 2004 draft class products. Dwight Howard was the first domino to topple, and the next big deal should go to Boston's Al Jefferson.
But how big will that deal be? The Boston Globe's Peter May talks about it in his Sunday notes column without really coming to a conclusion. Max money (which for a player with Jefferson's years of service is about $85 million over five years) is possible, but overkill. Zach Randolph was a player with a not-dissimilar profile (though a lesser off-court stature), and his max contract became an albatross for Portland. But how much less is Jefferson willing to take?
Chris Bosh got max dollars last year, and he's actually the most reasonable comp at this point. David West of New Orleans got $45ish million over five years, Chris Kaman got $52 million. Jefferson is clearly worth more than either. Worth how much more, though? $60 million? $65 million? $70 million? If Emeka Okafor -- another class of 2004 product -- signs before Jefferson, that contract could be the best indication for Al's worth.
But it's hard to figure when you're essentially bidding against yourself. With the league-wide cap situation as it is, how much will a team offer Jefferson if he makes it to restricted free agency? There shouldn't be anyone with Charlotte/Orlando level space next summer... so do the Celtics risk it and play hardball? Or do they decide they need no headaches and go above market-value to get this behind them? It's a confounding situation. But if anyone can make the right decision, it's this front office.
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